UKGC Open Banking Analysis Highlights Supplement Role of Illegal Gambling Sites
Paul Foster · Oct 31, 2026
UKGC Open Banking Analysis Highlights Supplement Role of Illegal Gambling Sites
Researchers at the UK Gambling Commission examined anonymised open banking records and discovered that illegal gambling in Britain functions more as an addition to licensed operator activity than as a substitute, with the report emerging alongside discussions of tax adjustments including the Machine Games Duty increase scheduled for October 2026.
Key Statistics From the Analysis
The study tracked 122 individuals who made repeated payments to illegal sites and found that 91 percent of them continued to place bets with licensed operators at the same time, while activity levels at those licensed platforms showed no meaningful decline following the first recorded illegal transactions.
Data collection drew from YouGov panel responses covering 38,000 individuals across the period from July 2018 through July 2026, allowing analysts to cross-reference payment patterns against both legal and unregulated platforms without relying on self-reported behavior alone.
Methodology and Scope of the Open Banking Review
Analysts accessed transaction data through open banking channels that provided a clear view of payment flows, revealing consistent patterns where players maintained accounts and activity across both licensed and unlicensed environments rather than shifting entirely away from regulated operators.
Observers note that the absence of any substantial drop in licensed gambling after initial illegal transactions suggests overlapping participation instead of displacement, and this finding emerged from repeated payer cohorts rather than one-off or sporadic users.
Release Timing Amid Tax Policy Developments
The UKGC report reached public attention during a period when industry participants anticipated further tax measures, including the Machine Games Duty rise set for October 2026, prompting closer examination of how regulatory changes might influence player movement between licensed and unlicensed channels.
Figures from the dataset indicate that illegal sites captured supplementary spending without eroding the established base of activity at licensed operators, a distinction that regulators and policymakers can reference when evaluating the broader market impact of proposed duty adjustments.
Patterns Observed in Repeat Payer Behavior
Among the 122 repeat payers identified in the open banking sample, the overwhelming majority sustained their relationships with licensed operators while also directing funds toward illegal sites, demonstrating that these two segments operate in parallel for a notable portion of the player base.
Researchers cross-checked transaction timestamps and amounts to confirm that licensed activity remained stable post-initial illegal payment, which rules out simple substitution effects and instead points to an additive pattern across the observed timeframe.
Broader Context for Licensed and Unlicensed Markets
The analysis contributes to ongoing regulatory discussions by supplying transaction-level evidence that illegal gambling does not appear to siphon volume away from the licensed sector in any measurable way for the studied group, although the report stops short of claiming this pattern holds across the entire population.
Panel data spanning eight years supplied sufficient longitudinal depth to track individual payment histories, allowing the UKGC team to isolate repeat offenders and measure their concurrent engagement with regulated platforms throughout the same window.
Conclusion
The UKGC open banking review establishes that, within the examined cohort, illegal gambling supplements rather than replaces activity at licensed operators, with 91 percent of repeat payers maintaining both streams and no recorded drop in licensed volumes after the first illegal transaction.
Released against the backdrop of upcoming tax changes including the Machine Games Duty adjustment in October 2026, the findings derived from 38,000 YouGov panel members between July 2018 and July 2026 provide regulators with concrete data on how these market segments interact.